(NewsNation) — Although the October jobs report will not be released Friday, private sector data indicates the United States is on track to lose more jobs this year than at the start of the pandemic.
For the second straight month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release its employment report because of the government shutdown. Without that critical data, economists are relying heavily on private sector figures, which show potential signs of trouble and, at best, a mixed picture of the economy.
This week, private payroll company ADP released a report showing slower hiring and cooling wage growth, signs of a weakening labor market. The private sector added a modest 42,000 jobs in October, reversing two consecutive months of losses.
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But a new report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an executive outplacement firm, shows numbers far more dramatic. The report shows more than 153,000 job cuts in October, a 175% increase from the same month last year and 183% higher than September’s figures, the highest for October since 2003.
The data pushes the U.S. past a concerning milestone, as employers have now announced more than 1 million job cuts in 2025 through October. Challenger cites artificial intelligence as a key factor for the layoffs.
Private reports can be volatile and often differ substantially from the gold-standard report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The last time Fed chair Jerome Powell spoke about a potential December rate cut and the need to rely on private sector data, he said the Fed would proceed with caution if the data seemed unreliable or did not present a clear picture.
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Without the government’s own jobs report, the Trump administration has been able to avoid directly addressing these numbers. The president has instead highlighted what he calls “economic progress,” despite delays in information amid the shutdown.
Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “jobs are booming” and “inflation is falling,” though without government data, there is no official gauge to truly understand how the American people and the economy are faring.
