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Mikie Sherrill projected to win New Jersey’s governor race

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(NewsNation) — NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ has called the New Jersey governor race in favor of Mikie Sherrill. 

Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a four-term U.S. representative and former Navy helicopter pilot, faced Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state Assemblyman who came within three points of winning the governorship in 2021. 

Sherrill entered Election Day as the slight favorite to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, but polling showed the race tightening in the final weeks. 

Both candidates were evenly matched in campaign funding, making the contest a key test of voter sentiment less than a year into Donald Trump’s second term. New Jersey is one of several states where Trump gained considerable ground in 2024, improving on his 2020 vote share by about five percentage points.

Democrat Kamala Harris still carried the Garden State, but the roughly six-point margin was the narrowest for her party since 1992.

New Jersey voters have shown less consistency when it comes to the governor’s office. Republican Chris Christie served two terms from 2010 to 2018, followed by Murphy, a Democrat who has held the post since then.

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For decades, the state tended to elect governors from the opposite party of the sitting president — a streak that ran from 1989 to 2017 before breaking in 2021 when Murphy was reelected during Joe Biden’s first year in office.

That trend, however, ran counter to another longstanding pattern: No political party had won three consecutive terms in the governor’s mansion since 1961.

Sherrill sought to break that streak by positioning herself as a centrist Democrat — emphasizing fiscal responsibility and government accountability while drawing clear contrasts with Trump’s agenda.

She made lowering costs central to her campaign, rolling out an “Affordability Agenda” to bring down prices for health care, housing and groceries. Sherrill pledged to declare a state of emergency over utility costs on Day 1.

Ciattarelli also prioritized cost-of-living concerns, promising to cap property taxes at a percentage of assessed home value. He vowed to reduce income taxes across the board and make student loan interest tax-deductible.

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The former state assemblyman ran as a conservative Republican, generally steering clear of the more combative rhetoric associated with the MAGA wing of the party. 

Ciattarelli considered abortion a “deeply personal” decision and presented a policy aimed at finding “common ground.” He also wanted to ban municipalities from declaring themselves “sanctuary cities.”

Democratic party heavyweights like former President Barack Obama and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg stumped for Sherrill, while Trump and former New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean endorsed Ciattarelli.

As of Nov. 1, there were about 6.6 million registered voters in New Jersey — about 38% were Democrats, roughly 25% Republicans and about 36% not affiliated with any party.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.