Senate Republicans and Democrats are trying to hammer out a proposal to end the 30-day government shutdown as soon as next week, as some centrist Democrats argue behind the scenes that their party has successfully highlighted rising health care costs and it’s time to end the stalemate.
Shutdown fatigue on Capitol Hill is growing as the government stoppage approaches the one-month mark, and the pain is increasing.
With open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) health insurance marketplace set to begin next month, some Democrats say the higher costs are already baked in because Republicans have steadfastly refused to negotiate a deal to extend enhanced subsidies that are due to expire at the end of December.
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“My assessment is that we’ve won anything that we can possibly win and the costs of continuing the shutdown are going to be felt by people who are going to food banks and federal employees,” said one Democratic senator, who requested anonymity to argue that any political benefit of extending the shutdown is about to be outweighed by the harms inflicted on ordinary Americans.
A huge factor in this thinking is that Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits are due to expire on Saturday, putting 42 million Americans at risk of not having enough to eat.
The conviction that Americans are now aware that Republicans have declined to extend health insurance subsidies and the fear that consequences of the shutdown are about to get dramatically worse have Democratic senators looking for a face-saving exit from the standoff over the next week.
“The open-enrollment period is beginning on Saturday and tragically the Republicans have won their battle to increase health care costs on the American people. That is the result of the position that they’ve taken in this negotiation. Now we know that the American people’s health care costs are going to go up because the Republican Party in Washington is refusing to extend the ObamaCare tax credits,” said Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), a member of the Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction over health insurance tax subsidies.
“Democrats have won a victory because we have demonstrated that we are fighting for health care for all Americans,” he said.
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Some Democratic senators are privately speculating that if their party does well in the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia scheduled for Tuesday, they can declare a political victory and begin to finalize the endgame for reopening government.
Virginia, which will be a Senate battleground in 2026, is home to approximately 140,000 federal employees.
Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.) says voters are “well aware” that their health insurance premiums are going up in 2026 in part because Republicans don’t want to extend the ACA’s enhanced insurance premium subsidies.
“People are well aware of it on a personal basis,” he said of the Democrats’ argument that Republicans are driving up health care prices by not addressing the expiring subsidies.
The other factor Democrats are weighing is pressure from the American Federation of Government Employees, which represents 820,000 federal and D.C. government workers, to pass a clean continuing resolution to reopen the government.
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Everett Kelley, the union’s president, said in a statement Monday that “both parties have made their point” and it’s time to pass a clean stopgap funding measure to “end this shutdown today.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Wednesday that moderate Democrats are looking for an “off-ramp” to end the shutdown and he’s willing to talk to them about the concessions he has already offered.
Specifically, Thune has promised to negotiate with Democrats on extending the ACA subsidies once the government is open and has even offered them a vote on their own proposal to extend those tax credits beyond December.
The GOP leader, however, has stuck to his position that he won’t negotiate specific health care policy concessions with Democrats while the government remains closed.
“It’s just a question of whether or not they are at some point willing to take ‘yes’ for an answer,” Thune said of moderate Democrats who are eager to find a deal to end the shutdown.
Thune is willing to cut a deal with Democrats to reopen government, but it’s going to consist of the proposals he has already offered them, such as getting the appropriations back on track, voting on the expiring subsidies and pledging to have a discussion on health care once federal departments and agencies are back up and running.
“The stakes are getting higher, which we knew they would. As the shutdown drags on, it becomes more painful for more people,” he said.
“What I’ve told them all along is as soon as they’re ready to open up the government that we will ensure that they have a process whereby they can have their chance to get their legislation voted on, their policies voted on,” he said of his interactions with Senate Democratic colleagues. “They’ve become more interested and I hope that continues.
“They’re looking for an off-ramp,” Thune added, noting the expiration of SNAP benefits is creating a sense of urgency to find a deal to reopen the government.
Moderate Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) said bipartisan talks to end the shutdown have picked up significant momentum this week with the approaching expiration of SNAP benefits.
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“There is a good group of folks who realize we are well past time to have this behind us. This is not good. This is not good from a governance perspective. This doesn’t reflect well on anybody and it is hurting real people [in] real time so let’s figure out a way to end it,” she said.
Murkowski said the disagreements that need to be solved to end the shutdown have been discussed at length.
“There have been enough of these pieces that have been talked through that if somebody can just diagram out how it all comes together and present, yes, I do think it’s possible” to end the shutdown next week, she told reporters.
“There’s no great magic in how we get out of this. It’s the same stuff we’ve been talking about for months,” she said, citing a pledge to return to the regular appropriations process and begin working on a “temporary fix” to keep the Affordable Care Act subsidies from expiring.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), a key moderate who has worked for weeks with Republicans to find a middle-ground compromise to reopen government, said Wednesday, “There have been a lot of positive discussions that have been helpful.”
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Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), another centrist in the middle of the talks to reopen the government, said there’s a lot of activity but declined to provide any details about progress made so far.
“We’re continuing,” he said. “There’s still more that has to be done.”
“Sometimes the path has twists and turns but it is a path in the right direction,” he added. “I think we’ll find an end eventually.”
Recognizing the financial burdens felt by hundreds of thousands of federal workers, Peters has sponsored a proposal to compensate all federal employees for the paychecks they’ve missed so far during the shutdown.
