(The Hill) – The number of job openings decreased by more in July than economists were expecting as the labor market recalibrates in response to President Trump’s trade war and immigration crackdown.
Open jobs in the monthly JOLTS survey fell to a rounded 7.2 million, down from 7.4 million in June, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Economic forecasts for the report ranged from 7.3 to 7.5 million.
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The drop marks the first time unemployed Americans have outnumbered available jobs since 2021. There are currently 7.24 million jobs seekers, and 7.18 million open positions.
“The July JOLTS report showed further signs of softening labor market conditions,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary. “The job openings-to-unemployed ratio fell below 1.0 for the first time since April 2021, signaling a loosening demand for workers.”
Private sector openings decreased for the second month in a row, falling to 6.4 million in July from 6.5 million in June and 6.9 million in May.
Job openings decreased in health care and social assistance by 181,000, in arts and entertainment by 62,000, and in mining and logging by 13,000.
New hires increased slightly to 5.3 million, and the number of people quitting their jobs held steady at 3.2 million.
The quits rate also held steady at 2.0 where it has remained since May as many workers have chosen to stay in their current roles amid greater labor market uncertainty.
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The latest job opening data follows a sour July employment report from the Labor Department that showed just 106,000 jobs being added to the economy across May, June and July. The economy needs between 80,000 and 100,000 new jobs per month to make up for regular attrition rates.
The report prompted President Trump to fire the Labor Department’s chief statistician. Trump said the data was “rigged” but didn’t provide any evidence to back up the claim. Professional economists on both the left and right widely criticized the firing.
While job creation has decreased in recent months, the unemployment rate is still at a low 4.2 percent.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described the slowdown as “curious” in a recent speech, noting that both demand and supply for workers had come down together.
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“This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment,” he said.
Economists have described Trump’s immigration policy as having “dramatic” effects on the labor market that could detract from total U.S. economic output in the coming years.
Economists at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, recently projected net migration in 2025 to be at an average reduction of 205,000 people, reflecting “a dramatic decrease in inflows and somewhat higher outflows.”
