Texas House Democrats who fled the state to stall a Republican redistricting plan have signaled they’re ready to return to the Lone Star State in the coming days.
The Texas state legislature wrapped up its first special session on Friday, one of the conditions the Democrats gave for ending their quorum break. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) quickly called a second special session, with Democrats’ anticipated return set to clear the way for the Texas House to move forward with an aggressive gerrymander that could net five more House seats for the GOP in the midterms.
But the quorum-breaking Texas Democrats are touting the national attention they’ve brought to the redistricting fight and looking for hope from California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has vowed to move forward with his own new map.
Here’s what to know as Democrats plan to end the standoff:
Why now?
It was always highly unlikely that Texas Democrats would be able to permanently thwart the GOP’s redistricting effort. But by fleeing the state, they hoped to raise national attention over the issue and inspire Democrat-led states to move forward with their own new maps.
In both cases, they succeeded.
The Texas Democrats’ decision to leave made the redistricting battle a national story. And now California is moving forward with its own effort to rewrite its congressional lines in the hopes of counteracting the Texas GOP. Other blue states may soon follow.
The Texas Democrats also wanted to hold out until the first special session came to an end, which it did on Friday. They cited both that and California’s decision to move forward with redistricting as its preconditions for coming home.
The developments allow Democrats to frame the outcome as a victory, even if Republicans will also tout their return as a win.
There were also other financial and political risks for the Democrats. They’ve been forced to parry Republican criticism that they’re holding up other legislative business — including disaster relief for Texas affected by recent floods — by staying out-of-state. And each quorum breaker has been racking up $500-a-day fines for their absence, on top of threats of removal and arrest, as well as the logistical cost of living away from their homes.
What does it mean for the new Texas maps?
The new GOP-friendly maps are almost certain to pass once the Democrats return to the state.
Even as they remained out of state, a set of new congressional lines passed in the state Senate, while an identical set of lines were also approved by a state House committee. House Republicans couldn’t bring the new map to a floor vote in the lower chamber, however, until the Democrats returned.
With the Democrats expected to return to the state, Republicans will have the quorum needed to hold a vote on and pass their map. The map would go next to Abbott for his signature before the new congressional lines are enacted.
Texas Democrats knew they would inevitably return to the state since Abbott had threatened to call special session after special session until they returned. Democrats had no options available for blocking the new map from passing, since Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and the GOP also has a Republican governor.
How are both sides spinning it?
Republicans are touting their return as a win, since it means they will be able to move forward with passing new congressional lines.
But Democrats are celebrating the outcome as a political victory too.
“Abbott thought he could silence Black and Latino Texans with his redistricting scheme. He was wrong. We fought back — now other states, starting with California, will neutralize their power grab,” the Texas House Democrats said in a statement posted on X.
National Democrats also hailed it as a win that Republicans were unable to pass their new House map during the first special session.
“Under threats to their safety and livelihood, Texas Democrats have continued to deny Republicans a quorum to enact their rigged maps and ignited a national Democratic movement,” Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin said in a statement.
“From California to Washington, D.C, Democrats will continue to stand with the American people and the people of Texas as we battle against Trump and Republicans’ anti-democratic attacks,” he added.
But the White House is also pushing other states like Indiana and Missouri to redraw their maps as well – raising questions over how many states will ultimately get involved in the fight and have the upper hand.
What does it mean for the wider redistricting battle?
The redistricting battle in Texas has turned into a nationwide war, and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) wants to hold a special election in November to ask voters to weigh in on a ballot measure allowing the state legislature to redraw the state’s congressional maps for the rest of the decade.
“I hope we are waking up to this reality. Wake up, America. Wake up to what Donald Trump is doing,” Newsom said at a Thursday event on the effort. “Wake up to his assault, wake up to the assault on institutions and knowledge and history. Wake up to his war on science, public health and his war on the American people.”
California Democrats released their proposed new map, which targets five Republican incumbents, on Friday night.
Other states are also considering jumping into the fray. Ohio is already set to redistrict due to state requirements, and Republicans in Florida and Missouri have suggested they’ll be revisiting their maps, too.
Other blue states like New York and Illinois are also weighing redistricting now.
Is it really the end of the fight in Texas?
The next front in the Texas redistricting battle is likely to play out in the courts.
As the Democrats’ statement noted on Thursday, their legal counsel has advised them to “return to Texas to build a strong public legislative record for the upcoming legal battle against a map that violates both the current Voting Rights Act and the Constitution.”
“We will return to the House floor and to the courthouse with a clear message: the fight to protect voting rights has only just begun,” it added.
Democratic groups are likely to file a lawsuit once Texas passes its new map. If that battle plays out in state courts, it will almost certainly fail since the Texas Supreme Court has a conservative majority.
If it were to somehow play out in federal court, it’s not as clear-cut, given the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled favorably for Democrats in the past over the Voting Rights Act. At the same time, the U.S. Supreme Court still enjoys a conservative majority.
