Join Chris Cuomo, Bill O’Reilly and more big-name guests Wednesday for NewsNation’s CUOMO Town Hall, with a live studio audience and virtual audience across America, to discuss the first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s administration. Find out how to watch on TV, or catch NewsNation live on YouTube or the NewsNation app. Wednesday at 8p/7C.
(NewsNation) — Donald Trump won the 2024 Election with promises to boost the economy, but after nearly 100 days in office, the president’s escalating trade war has unsettled financial markets and sparked widespread uncertainty.
Most Americans (55%) now have little to no confidence in Trump when it comes to economic policy, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump’s economic approval rating at just 37%, the lowest point of his two terms.
Trump’s tariffs — which economists and businesses have warned will lead to higher prices — are driving the pessimism.
NewsNation to present CUOMO Town Hall: The First 100 Days featuring President Donald Trump
Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast over tariff instability and several prominent economists have raised their recession odds in recent weeks.
The president and his allies insist the recent measures are a form of shock therapy, suggesting that Americans may have to endure short-term pain for long-term gain.
Trump has argued that his tariff policies will create more American jobs and help the U.S. secure better trade deals, but the strategy has faced criticism from economists across the political spectrum, who remain skeptical.
For now, key economic indicators have stayed relatively stable, with the full impact of tariffs yet to be realized. The unemployment rate has ticked up slightly, from 4.0% in January to 4.2% in March, and U.S. employers have continued to add jobs.
Inflation slowed to a 2.4% annual rate in March, the lowest since September, though that reflects past economic conditions. Other recent signals, like plunging consumer confidence and a tumultuous stock market, point to trouble ahead.
Here’s what’s changed since Trump’s inauguration day in January.
What will become more expensive as tariffs take effect?
Stocks are volatile amid uncertainty
S&P 500
At close on Jan. 21: 6,049
At close on Apr. 25: 5,525
Change: -8.7%
Trump’s unpredictable tariff moves have rattled investors and sent stocks swinging wildly. As of market close Friday, the S&P 500 was down almost 9% since Inauguration Day.
The benchmark index briefly entered bear market territory earlier this month, down 20% from its recent high, before rebounding after Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs.
How to protect your 401(k) and investments as stocks swing
Nevertheless, April is on track to be the most volatile month for the S&P 500 since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Several U.S. companies posted stronger-than-expected profits to kick off 2025, but recent market uncertainty has clouded forecasts, with the real impact likely to emerge in quarters ahead.
Consumer sentiment is down
Americans are feeling worse about the economy than they have in years.
Consumer sentiment, a key measure of economic attitudes, declined for the fourth straight month in April, hitting its lowest level since July 2022, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.
The drop-off suggests growing unease, which could lead to tighter household budgets — a worrisome trend, given that consumer spending drives roughly 70% of the U.S. economy.
Potential impact of Trump’s trade war on jobs and inflation sends US consumer sentiment plunging
“Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead,” Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement on Friday.
Hsu added: “Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warning signs perceived by consumers.”
A separate measure of consumer attitudes, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, is also down. The index that measures consumers’ expectations recently fell to a 12-year low and is now well below the threshold that normally signals a recession ahead.
Economists raise recession odds
Some of the nation’s top economists now see a much greater chance of a recession in the next year than they did at the start of Trump’s second term. The president’s tariffs are the main reason why.
Moody’s
Start of 2025: 15% chance of recession
Current odds: 60% chance of recession
“It was encouraging to see the President reverse himself on the so-called ‘reciprocal’ tariffs yesterday, but I wouldn’t take much solace in it as the global trade war continues to rage. I still put the odds of a recession this year at 60%,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, wrote in an April 10 post on X.
Odds of a recession are rising, top economists warn
JPMorgan
Start of 2025: 30% chance of recession (per Reuters)
Current odds: 60% chance of recession
“Even with the latest step-back from the draconian Liberation Day measures, what remains is still enough to push the U.S. and China — and thus likely the global economy — into a recession this year,” Bruce Kasman, chief global economist at JPMorgan, said in a recent report.
Mortgage rates and the housing market
Mortgage rates haven’t changed much since Trump took office and are still well above their pandemic-era lows.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently 6.81%, down from 6.96% in late January, according to Freddie Mac.
The lack of movement is partly due to the Federal Reserve holding its key interest rate steady since December, as the central bank adopts a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs.
New data from the National Association of Realtors this week showed sales of existing homes plunged 5.9% in March from the month before to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units. That’s the slowest March sales pace since 2009.
America’s housing shortage by the numbers
“Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
Some expect Trump’s trade war to cool the housing market even further.
“Slower growth and heightened uncertainty are likely to drag on housing market activity,” Mike Fratantoni and Joel Kan with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said in an April forecast.
Home builders have fared somewhat better, with sales of new U.S. single-family homes increasing more than expected in March. However, the National Association of Homebuilders recently estimated that Trump’s tariffs will increase construction costs by $10,900 per home.
“High material prices and labor shortages continue to challenge our ability to build homes that meet the budget constraints of many families,” Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis, said in a statement.
Avg. 30-year fixed rate mortgage (Freddie Mac)
Week ending Jan. 23: 6.96%
Week ending Apr. 24: 6.81%
