The presidential race is tight, and neither candidate has a clear lead. But in the final weekend before Election Day, both Vice President Harris and former President Trump are ready to declare victory.
Both campaigns say they have laid the groundwork to win. Both think they have the correct rationale for why they should win.
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The Harris campaign says their ground game will help see them through, pointing to more than 2,500 staffers and volunteers in key states. They also say issues like abortion along with Harris’s favorability rating, which is several points higher than Trump’s in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average of polls, will help catapult the vice president to the White House.
At the same time, the Trump campaign points to polls that show that voters don’t think the country is heading in the right direction, highlighting the recent rising costs and the overall “vibe” of the economy.
They also say Harris is tied to President Biden, whose own approval rating is underwater. Historically, they say when an incumbent has a low approval rating — Biden is at 40 percent — the opposing party prevails. They also feel good about their registration and early vote numbers.
“I think both sides have valid reasons for how and why a win is possible,” said one Democratic strategist close to the Harris campaign. “That’s part of the reason why it’s so close and why neither side has the advantage. Every poll is ridiculously close.”
A poll released by Gallup this week showed that approximately 49 percent of Americans have a favorable view of Harris compared to 44 percent for Trump. Harris’s running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, also has a higher favorable rating at 45 percent than Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (Ohio), who is at 39 percent.
Those numbers bode well for Harris, Gallup noted, because candidates with higher favorability ratings have typically won recent presidential elections.
“Honestly, there’s any number of data points and reasons I think Harris will win, but there’s also the Potter Stewart analogy: You may not be able to define a winning campaign, but you know it when you see it,” Democratic strategist Christy Setzer said. “Harris continues to pack stadiums, generate excitement, while controlling the media narrative.”
“It’s a high-wire act she’s pulling off right now, and for the last 100 days, and she’s making it look easy.”
Since becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris has leaned into abortion as an issue, and Democrats say that was a smart tack.
They point to a recent NBC News poll that showed likely voters feel “strongly” about abortion. When respondents were asked if there was one issue they felt strongly about that would decide their vote for or against a candidate, 22 percent said abortion, outranking other issues including immigration, protecting democracy and even cost of living.
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Since the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022, Democrats have successfully rallied women around the issue, turning out record numbers of voters during the 2022 midterm elections. And that momentum shows no sign of slowing, Democrats say.
“So far, women are still voting at post-Dobbs level, and there are no corresponding sights yet of the ‘bro vote surge’ they have been targeting,” said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale. “Harris has a strong closing message on the economy, abortion, and democracy, while Trump is flailing from grievance to grievance, playing dress-up garbage man, and threatening to shoot people.”
But the Trump campaign says their message on top issues including the economy and immigration has been resonating with voters, a point even Republicans who aren’t supporting Trump acknowledge.
“When he’s on message and he’s talking about the issues, his points crack through the noise more than Kamala’s do,” one GOP strategist said. “I still can’t tell you what her vision is.”
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Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for the Trump campaign, said Republicans have also “made massive voter registration gains, and we are far outperforming in our share of the early vote relative to two or four years ago across all battleground states.”
“Voters know that Kamala Harris has destroyed our country, but President Trump will fix it when he ends inflation, secures the border, and makes America strong again — and that is why he is well-positioned for victory,” Leavitt added.
Republicans say they have successfully tied Harris to Biden, who remains highly unpopular with the American electorate, which serves as a red flag to political observers.
“The bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d have to break history,” CNN’s Harry Enten, who analyzes election data, said this week on the cable network. Enten also pointed to recent polls that showed a majority of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
“There isn’t a single time in which 28 percent of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won,” Enten said.
Republicans also maintain Trump has also made significant inroads with Hispanic and Black men.
“It’s a matter of whether they can get them out to the polls now,” said Matt Gorman, a Republican strategist who has worked on recent presidential campaigns. “If he hits his mark with those two subsets of voters, look out.”
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Speakers at a Trump rally in New York City last weekend caused a stir when a comedian made inappropriate jokes about Latinos and Puerto Rico.
On Friday, Harris campaign aides said they saw the rally break through to undecided voters, giving them a shot in the arm in the final days of the campaign. The officials said internal data shows Harris winning by double digits among voters who just decided who to support in recent days.
The Harris campaign also got good news on Saturday after a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll in Iowa showed Harris with a three-point lead over Trump.
The poll of more than 800 voters who were surveyed showed Harris over Trump 47 percent to 44 percent. While the poll is within the margin of error, it revealed a significant shift from a September survey in the state which showed Trump leading by 4 points.
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The Trump campaign immediately cast the poll as a significant outlier, but it still gave the Harris camp a jolt of momentum.
A second Democratic strategist said while Trump had been seen as the candidate with the momentum over the last couple of weeks, Harris has seen a turning point of sorts in the last several days.
“I think we are exactly where we need to be,” the strategist said.
But Vale and other Democrats have concluded one thing: No one knows how it will end.
“It’s going to be close, and a grind to the finish,” Vale said. “But the saying ‘Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades’ also applies to the Electoral College.”
