The shutdown, which has broken the record for the longest in U.S. history, has left many Americans wondering when exactly the government will reopen its doors.
Even lawmakers on Capitol Hill don’t have the answer.
Though there have been bipartisan negotiations in the Senate, no agreement has been finalized that would satisfy both parties. Democrats have demanded an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of the year. They have repeatedly blocked a Republican stopgap measure, that would fund the government till Nov. 21, from advancing in the upper chamber.
There are, however, a few variables that could change the course of the shutdown fight. These include the return of House lawmakers, President Trump deciding to strike a deal with members across the aisle or Democratic centrists agreeing to reopen the government as the shutdown intensifies.
If — or when — these variables will come into play remains a mystery. Here are five unanswered questions in the shutdown fight.
What pain point finally moves lawmakers?
Thus far, none of the expected pressure points or deadlines — including federal workers missing paychecks, flight delays, and the upheaval around food assistance — have moved lawmakers to act.
The Trump administration has found money thus far to pay military servicemembers and fund the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC).
But more pain could be coming.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered 40 “high traffic airports” across the country to reduce their flight operations by 4% on Friday, as air traffic controllers work without pay and staffing shortages overtake air traffic facilities. The number could increase to 10% by Nov. 14 if the funding lapse continues, the FAA said. Hundreds of flights had been cancelled on Friday as airlines complied with the directive.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who himself was stranded in D.C. on Oct. 30 due to a flight delay, told reporters he expected air travel to get worse in the weeks ahead.
The millions of Americans who have yet to receive full Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits in November could also be a pain point that moves lawmakers, especially as many families are left hungry and the Thanksgiving holiday approaches.
A federal judge on Nov. 6 ordered the Trump administration to make full SNAP benefit payments to states by Friday, rejecting the administration’s plan to provide partial payments without tapping additional funds. However, Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson on Nov. 7 temporarily halted the order, which the administration said was “untenable at every turn.”
And while the federal government was able to cover the past two paychecks for the military, it is unclear whether they will be able to find the money to pay servicemembers on Nov. 15.
Does Trump get involved?
Democrats agree that Trump is the only one who can strike a deal to end the shutdown. But so far, he’s only been increasing pressure on his own party and blaming Democrats for the crisis.
The Trump question is key for Democrats, who simply don’t trust GOP leaders to stick to any agreement the president hasn’t signed off on.
He last met with all four congressional leaders on Sept. 29 and has spent much of the shutdown focused on foreign policy issues.
Trump urged Republican senators during a White House meeting on Nov. 5 to eliminate the filibuster, the 60-vote threshold the minority Democrats are using to block the Republicans’ stopgap spending bill. However, a number of Republicans have opposed the idea.
“I think if we went to a simple-majority system, we’d be very sorry,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) wrote a letter to Trump on Nov. 5 demanding a meeting with him. Trump ignored the letter.
The growing pain of the shutdown – as well as recent polls – could potentially move Trump to negotiate with Democrats at some point. Trump said during the Nov. 5 meeting that the shutdown was partly to blame for Republicans’ losses in the 2025 off-year elections.
Numerous polls have also found that most Americans blame Trump and Republicans for the shutdown.
When do Democrats take an off-ramp?
Democratic progressives have been urging their centrist colleagues not to cave in the shutdown fight.
In March, some Senate Democratic centrists faced blowback after voting to advance a Republican stopgap measure to fund the government. These senators included Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.).
Schumer in particular bore the brunt of Democrats’ rage.
This time around, the Senate has failed 14 times to advance a Republican stopgap measure. Only two Democrats — Sens. John Fetterman (Pa.) and Cortez Masto — along with Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), who caucuses with Democrats, broke ranks and supported the measure.
And Democrats have felt emboldened to keep their shutdown strategy intact after the party emerged victorious in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, as well as the New York City mayoral election.
“All over this country, people are saying, ‘Please, Democrats, you haven’t been strong in the past. Stand tall now,’” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a progressive firebrand who caucuses with Democrats, said after the election.
Does Thune offer more?
Thune is in a complicated position, as any proposal he offers must appease Senate Democrats and members of his own party — and must pass muster with House Republicans.
He had initially eyed putting a stopgap measure on the floor and attaching it to a three-bill spending package — known as a minibus — that has been part of negotiations with Democrats. The deal also included a promise of a future vote on a health care subsidy package.
However, Senate Democrats later decided to push for more concessions. Schumer offered a counter-proposal that would include a one-year extension of ACA subsidies. Republicans quickly opposed the idea.
“Everybody who follows this knows that’s a non-starter,” Thune said. “There is no way. The ObamaCare extension is the negotiation. That’s what we’re going to negotiate once the government opens up.”
It’s not clear whether Thune will offer more to Democrats beyond his initial proposal. It will all depend on how his discussions with the minority party progress in the coming days.
When does the House come back?
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has kept the House out of session for more than a month in an effort to put pressure on Senate Democrats to support a Republican stopgap measure.
Some Republicans have expressed concern about Johnson’s decision, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). Greene said on ABC’s “The View” that it was an “embarrassment.”
“The worst thing that I – that I just can’t get over is we’re not working right now. And I put that criticism directly on the speaker of the House, and we should be at work,” she said.
However, lawmakers have been discussing a new stopgap measure that would fund the government past November – which the House would need to eventually sign off on.
Johnson said during a Nov. 4 press conference that if the Senate passes a new stopgap measure, the House will come back to session.
Al Weaver, Alexander Bolton and Zach Schonfeld contributed to this report.
