(NewsNation) — Friday will see the first federal update on inflation since the government shutdown began more than three weeks ago.
The consumer price index report — a critical gauge of inflation — will be released at 8:30 a.m. EDT. The data comes more than a week late, after the Bureau of Labor called back furloughed employees to finish it.
The data is needed to decide Social Security Cost of Living Adjustments, or COLA.
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“Technically, if inflation comes in higher than the cost of living, then the adjustment for social security next year will be higher,” Doug Flynn, co-founder of Flynn Zito Capital Management, told NewsNation.
Economists expect prices to rise again, forecasting a 3.1% year-over-year and 0.4% month-to-month increase. Anything higher could affect both Social Security payouts and financial markets Friday.
Next week’s Federal Reserve meeting could also hinge on those numbers, with stronger inflation possibly delaying rate cuts.
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Beyond the headline numbers, investors will be looking closely at how the data was collected during the shutdown, with many workers out of work.
Limited data gathering could affect October’s CPI and other economic reports. If Friday’s report doesn’t include details on how the data was gathered, markets could react to credibility concerns — not just inflation itself.
