(NewsNation) — After the first debate, predictive markets and polling show Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani is continuing to lead in the race for New York City mayor.
Two weeks ahead of the election, Mamdani maintains a firm lead with Republican Curtis Sliwa and independent Andrew Cuomo lagging behind.
Mamdani holds substantial lead
On predictive market site Kalshi, 91% of users have put their money behind a Mamdani win, with 43% of people putting their money behind a margin of victory of at least 24%.
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Likewise, 73% of people on the site think he has a shot of winning at least 50% of the vote, and 61% say he will get between 50% and 59% of the vote.
That’s slightly higher than conventional polling.
Recent polls show Mamdani getting 43% of the vote, though some polls put him as high as 52%.
Calls for Curtis Sliwa to drop out
Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa has resisted calls for him to drop out of the race, and the predictive markets show just 14% of users think he’ll heed the call.
Some Republicans have pleaded with Sliwa to drop out and urged Republicans to coalesce behind Cuomo, hoping that narrowing the field will give them a better shot at defeating Mamdani.
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At least one poll shows that a two-way race between Mamdani and Cuomo would be much tighter, coming in at 44% of the vote for Mamdani and 40% for Cuomo.
Mamdani, who describes himself as a democratic socialist, has been the target of attacks from Republicans, including President Donald Trump, who have painted a dire picture of what could happen if he wins and institutes progressive policies in the city.
Prediction markets like Kalshi allow people to bet on future events online, but unlike sports betting, where odds are set by bookmakers, they rely on the “wisdom of the crowd” to determine prices.
