Democrats have proposed a new congressional map for California that could offset Republican efforts to redistrict in Texas, giving the party a chance at five new Democratic House seats in the Golden State.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is leading a charge to put a redistricting ballot measure before voters in a special election this fall, a play to bypass California’s independent redistricting commission and redraw lines mid-decade. State lawmakers introduced related legislation on Monday, and are expected to move quickly to set the plan in motion.
The map, proposed by the Democrats’ House campaign arm, needs to work its way through the legislature — then survive legal challenges and get the green light from voters. But in its current form, it’s expected to endanger five House Republicans and give Democrats a boost in some competitive seats.
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The GOP currently holds just nine of California’s 52 House seats. Here are the Republicans at risk in the new proposal:
Rep. Kevin Kiley, 3rd Congressional District
Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) has emerged as one of the most vocal critics of Newsom’s redistricting plan, and he would be one of the lawmakers most impacted if the proposed maps move forward.
Kiley’s 3rd Congressional District would pick up some of the blue Sacramento while losing Death Valley, according to analysis from Cook Political Report, changing the seat from one that went to President Trump by 4 points to one that sided with ex-Vice President Harris by 10 points.
“Newsom is so desperate to get rid of me he’s gerrymandered my district in the shape of an elephant. The ‘trunk’ captures as many Democrat voters as possible,” Kiley said on X. “Like all his attempts, this will fail. We’ll keep beating him at the ballot box and the Capitol.”
Kiley has proposed federal legislation that would ban mid-decade redistricting nationwide and nullify any new maps that are approved before the 2030 census.
Rep. Doug LaMalfa, 1st Congressional District
Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R-Calif.) 1st Congressional District would make a similarly drastic shift, jumping from a district Trump won by double digits to one that would have gone to Harris by more than 10 points, according to Cook Political Report.
By shifting Democratic Rep. Jared Huffman’s 2nd Congressional District in Marin County to take on more of California’s northern border, LaMalfa’s district would pick up parts of blue Santa Rosa.
The seats held by Kiley and LaMalfa would both become “likely” or even “safe” Democratic seats, “depending on the candidates and campaigns,” analysis from Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts.
“If you want to know what’s wrong with these maps – just take a look at them. How on earth does Modoc County on the Nevada and Oregon Border have any common interest with Marin County and the Golden Gate Bridge?” LaMalfa wrote on X.
The congressman, who has held his seat for more than a decade, also sounded alarms that Newsom’s efforts in California will “set off a series of retaliation in other states across the country,” pointing to mid-decade chatter about redistricting in red Florida, Missouri and Indiana.
Rep. Ken Calvert, 41st Congressional District
Rep. Ken Calvert’s (R-Calif.) 41st Congressional District in Riverside County, which went to Trump by 6 points last fall, could be effectively replaced with a new seat in central Los Angeles County.
The new Latino-majority seat would make for another solid Democratic pickup opportunity in the midterms — though Sabato’s Crystal Ball notes that it may be less so in future cycles, if Hispanic voters continue the rightward shift seen in the last election.
Calvert, who has represented California in Congress for more than three decades, has stressed the popularity of California’s existing independent redistricting commission, which voters approved in 2008 and 2010, as he pushes back on the Democrats’ effort.
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“A bipartisan majority of Californians oppose efforts to eliminate our Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission. It only adds insult to injury to ask taxpayers to pay hundreds of millions of dollars on a special election power grab that would wipeout the Commission’s work,” Calvert has said on X.
Newsom has stressed that the redistricting measure would bypass the commission for the ’26, ’28 and ’30 elections, before reverting back to the commission’s typical redraw timelines after each census.
Rep. Darrell Issa, 48th Congressional District
Democrats have long targeted Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-Calif.) 48th Congressional District, where the incumbent won by double digits in November.
Issa retired from Congress in 2018 but returned with a win in 2020.
Under the map proposal, parts of Issa’s district would shift to nearby Democrats and pick up some of Palm Springs. That would flip his seat blue, according to Cook Political Report, from one that went to Trump by 15 points to one that would have gone to Harris by three.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball suggests that Issa’s seats would “probably” become a toss-up if the map takes effect, along with Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Calif.) seat.
Analysis from CalMatters, citing registration data in the district, dubs it “the biggest reach” for Democrats.
Rep. David Valadao, 22nd Congressional District
Valadao, one of the two remaining House Republicans to have voted for Trump’s impeachment after Jan. 6, would see his already competitive 22nd Congressional District in Central Valley get even more so under the new maps.
Cook Political Report forecasts that Valadao’s would shift from its current “lean Republican” rating to “toss-up” territory — from a district that went to Trump by six points to one that would have favored Trump by a single digit — becoming “the most tenuous for Democrats to flip” among the targeted districts.
“Neither political party should have the authority to rig maps to protect their own power,” Valadao said in a statement late last month, calling Newsom’s effort a “blatant power grab.”
