CHICAGO (NewsNation) — President Donald Trump has urged an end to cashless bail, blaming bail reform for what he claims is a rise in crime across the United States and increased attacks on law enforcement. But the data paints a different picture.
Nationwide, violent crime dropped nearly 11% from January to May compared to the same period last year, according to the Real-Time Crime Index, which tracks monthly statistics from hundreds of law enforcement agencies. Homicides are down more than 20%.
So, what role, if any, has bail reform played in public safety?
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It’s a complex issue, but one thing is clear: the statistics don’t support Trump’s claim.
While Trump pointed to so-called “sanctuary” policies and past arrests in his criticism of New York’s justice system, research has shown no consistent link between cashless bail policies and increased crime.
His push for cashless bail follows a shooting in New York City over the weekend, in which authorities said two immigrants shot an off-duty Customs and Border Protection officer.
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“There’s absolutely zero reason that someone who is scum of the earth like this should be running loose on the streets of New York City,” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Monday. She argued that local policies allow repeat offenders to roam free.
She said the suspect was arrested four different times in New York City, and because of the city’s “sanctuary” policies, he was “released back to do harm to people and to individuals living in this city”.
On social media, Trump wrote: “The WORST criminals are flooding our streets and endangering even our great law enforcement officers. It is a complete disaster, and must be ended, IMMEDIATELY!”
However, despite a pandemic-era surge in 2020, crime in most major U.S. cities has decreased. And studies examining the impact of bail reform have found little to no evidence that it drives up crime rates.
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In cities like New York, Los Angeles and Philadelphia, the overall crime rate has remained relatively unchanged, according to a Brennan Center for Justice report, and homicides have declined in some cities.
Researchers analyzed data from 33 cities around the U.S., evaluating crime trends before and after the implementation of bail reform.
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While previous studies focused on individual cities or states, this was the first to evaluate the nationwide impact of bail reform. It compares crime data from 2015 to 2021 across 22 cities that adopted bail reform with 11 that did not.
The study examined overall crime, specific offenses and the method of reform, whether it came through legislation, court rulings or prosecutorial decisions. It also focused on cities where reforms significantly changed how and when bail was set.
Researchers found that in major cities that have enacted cashless bail policies, there was no proven surge in crime tied to those policies.
Cash bail advocates: Data is not the whole story
Some critics of bail reform argue the numbers don’t tell the entire story.
“There are thousands of examples of these individuals who have been arrested, who have not had to post bail and have gone out and committed crimes again,” said criminal defense attorney Andrew Stoltmann.
“ While nationally the rates are going down … if you allow the streets to be flooded with people who have been arrested for dangerous crimes, there’s a high rate of recidivism, meaning doing it again out there,” he said.
The FBI and the Department of Justice attributed the crime spike in 2020 to COVID-19 lockdowns, economic instability and significant disruptions in policing, not to bail reform laws. Since then, violent crime has declined nationwide, including in major cities like Chicago.
