(NewsNation) — Ontario Premier Doug Ford has threatened to cut off electricity exports to the United States following President Donald Trump’s newest tariffs.
“If they want to try to annihilate Ontario, I will do everything — including cut off their energy with a smile on my face,” Ford told reporters at a mining convention in downtown Toronto, the Toronto Sun reported.
Trump enacted a 25% tariff on imports from our northern neighbor on Tuesday, making good on his campaign promises to make other North American countries pay for perceived failures in border security.
But beyond the political posturing are a combined 380 million people in Canada and the U.S. who could face higher prices or power cuts if this trade war intensifies.
Does US rely on Canadian electricity?
The United States and Canada have had a symbiotic energy relationship for nearly six decades.
America’s northern border is home to more than 35 major electricity transmission lines and 70 oil and gas pipelines, connecting the countries in the “closest energy relationship in the world,” per the embassy of Canada’s official website.
As of 2021, Canadian energy exports to the United States totaled $112 billion — conversely, the U.S. imported $25 billion in energy to Canada.
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In 2024, Canada supplied 62% of American crude oil imports. Other energy exports from Canada include hydroelectric power, natural gas and other fossil fuels.
“The energy relationship between the two countries extends beyond just the trade of commodities, encompassing a variety of common, though not always identical, economic, security, and environmental priorities,” according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
In some way, shape or form, all 50 states get energy or benefit from the U.S.-Canada energy trade.
Can Canada cut off electricity to the US?
Yes, Canada can make good on Ford’s promise — though it’ll take more than his threats to enact tariffs or pull the plug altogether.
It will take federal government approval for Ontario or any province to retaliate against Trump, experts told CNN back in 2024 when Trump and Ford first floated their warnings.
Who will be affected by a Canadian energy cut?
Nearly every region of the country will feel the heat — or lack thereof — if Canada decides to stop exporting energy.
Oil refineries in the Midwest and Great Lakes region rely on that oil to make gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. In 2023, the U.S. imported 1.4 million barrels of Canadian crude oil each day — more than half its daily import of 2.4 million.
In New England, states like Maine, which are “secluded from other regional energy infrastructure,” could face electricity cost hikes of up to $200 million per state, Heatmap News reports.
The state of Vermont has partnered with Hydro-Québec to have the Canadian company provide 25% of the state’s annual energy needs through 2038. Similarly, New York has a deal for megawatt importation through 2030.
Both deals could easily fall apart if Ford’s threats come to fruition, leaving much of the northeast scrambling for a new source.
What would happen if Canada stops exporting energy to US?
If Canada does shutter its energy exports to the U.S., Trump and his administration will have to buy from a pricier source, shift power across the country or create more energy facilities in-house.
Integrity Energy, one of the largest commercial energy brokerages in the nation, warns this could “single-handedly impact power reliability and costs in many states along the Northern border and throughout the Midwest.”
The Ohio-based enterprise forecasts a jump in both gas prices and energy rates, especially for states in the northeast like Maine, which is “secluded from other regional energy infrastructure.”
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RJ Johnston, research director at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told CNN in December that he doesn’t “see much vulnerability” for America in this situation.
He argues that the U.S. has abundant electricity resources and that any energy scramble would likely be temporary.
“Even in an extended outage, the US has the ability to add more generation capacity in a relatively short period of time,” Johnston said.
