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Metro Manila condo oversupply worsens, with 8.2-year market absorption time — Colliers

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A VIEW of buildings in Makati City.
— PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

Metro Manila’s condominium oversupply reached a record high last year, with unsold units expected to take over eight years to be fully absorbed by the market, according to Colliers Philippines.

Unsold units surged by 77% in 2024 to P158 billion worth of inventory, up from P89.6 billion in 2023, Colliers Philippines Director and Head of Research Joey Roi H. Bondoc said during a briefing on Wednesday.

At the current market absorption rate, it would take up to 8.2 years, or 98 months, for these units to be sold, compared to just 3.2 years in 2023, Mr. Bondoc said.

Metro Manila’s overall residential vacancy rate reached 23.9%. With declining occupancy in the capital, Mr. Bondoc said there is strong demand for residential projects in areas outside Metro Manila.

Additionally, he noted opportunities for growth in the pre-selling market, particularly in the upscale and luxury segments.

Overall, Colliers Philippines said the real estate market is expected to sustain growth despite headwinds, driven by infrastructure projects and industrial expansion.

Mr. Bondoc cited ongoing infrastructure developments such as the Metro Rail Transit Line 4 (MRT-4), MRT-7, and the Taguig City Integrated Terminal Exchange as key drivers of real estate growth.

The hotel sector is also showing signs of recovery, supported by rising international arrivals and increasing occupancy rates, he said.

Foreign hotel brands are expanding in the Philippines, a trend expected to further strengthen the sector, he added.

In 2024, the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) recorded an 11% increase in total passenger volume, surpassing 50 million, driven by a rise in flights and strong domestic travel demand.

Data from the Manila International Airport Authority (MIAA) showed that NAIA handled 50.26 million passengers in 2024, up 10.9% from 45.30 million in 2023 and 4.9% higher than the pre-pandemic level of 47.90 million in 2019.

From January to December 2024, domestic passenger traffic rose by 8.1% to 26.89 million from 24.88 million in 2023, while international passenger traffic increased by 14.4% to 23.37 million from 20.42 million.

Mr. Bondoc said ongoing infrastructure developments, particularly at NAIA and other regional airports, are expected to attract more travelers to the Philippines and support the hotel sector’s growth in 2025.

The industrial sector is also poised for sustained expansion in 2025, driven by continued investments, particularly in Luzon, he said.—Ashley Erika O. Jose